Life Expectancy and Achieving Treatment Goals in Type 2 Diab
The investigators used a BRAVO diabetes microsimulation model to a nationally representative sample of adults with T2D from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2016) using their linked short-term mortality data from the National Death Index. The model was then used to conduct the simulation experiment on the study population over a lifetime. Data were analyzed from January to October 2021. The study population was grouped into quartiles based on levels of HbA1c, SBP, LDL-C, and BMI. LE gains associated with achieving better control were estimated by moving people with T2D from the current quartile of each biomarker to the lower quartiles. The main outcome and measure was life expectancy. The BRAVO diabetes model uses the patients’ risk profile to populate the simulation of the diabetes progression and estimate the corresponding LE.

Among 421 individuals, 194 (46%) were women, and the mean (standard deviation) age was 65.6 (8.9) years. Compared with a BMI of 41.4 (mean of the fourth quartile), lower BMIs of 24.3 (first), 28.6 (second), and 33.0 (third) were associated with 3.9, 2.9, and 2.0 additional life-years, respectively, in people with T2D. Compared with an SBP of 160.4 mm Hg (fourth), lower SBP levels of 114.1 mm Hg (first), 128.2 mm Hg (second), and 139.1 mm Hg (third) were associated with 1.9, 1.5, and 1.1 years gained in LE in people with T2D, respectively. Lower LDL-C levels of 59 mg/dL (first), 84.0 mg/dL (second), and 107.0 mg/dL (third) were associated with 0.9, 0.7, and 0.5 years gained in LE, compared with LDL-C of 146.2 mg/dL (fourth). Reducing HbA1c from 9.9% (fourth) to 7.7% (third) was associated with 3.4 years gained in LE. However, a further reduction to 6.8% (second) was associated with only a mean of 0.5 years gained in LE, and from 6.8% to 5.9% (first) was not associated with LE benefit. Overall, reducing HbA1c from the fourth quartile to the first is associated with an LE gain of 3.8 years.

The authors concluded that increased LE with optimal treatment goals can be used by clinicians to motivate patients in achieving the recommended treatment goals and to help prioritize interventions and programs to improve diabetes care.