National Third Wave Unlikely As Majority Indians Already Exp
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Prominent veteran virologist T Jacob John believes that a third wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to occur nationwide unless more dangerous and infectious mutants occur than the delta mutant. “The range of the population not exposed to the virus between the last two waves and the range of vaccination determines the next wave,” said Velore, former director of clinical virology and microbiology at Christian Medical College (CMC).

According to his analysis of the proportion of the population infected between the first and second waves and three serum survey reports, one billion out of the country’s 1.4 billion population may already be infected. “The remaining 400 million people distributed throughout India may not be enough to sustain the waves, unless the subspecies are more infectious than Delta,” John said.

According to a retired professor, many urban populations and adults are already exposed to the virus or vaccinated. “In rural areas, cases can surge, but I’m not sure if that alone will lead to a wave of Covid-19. Unexposed populations are definitely susceptible to the virus, but the wave concentrates people. I need it, “he said.

John has made it clear that he does not completely deny the possibility of a third wave. But he opposes the creation of a panic about the possible third wave. “We need to be vigilant and prepared, not overreacted,” he said. Concerned over Lambda, Peru’s predominant mutant currently detected in 28 other countries, John said the government must strengthen the viral sequencing. “India does not consider variants as carefully as many other countries. All variants need to be checked,” he said.

Due to the lack of evidence and information about how dangerous or infectious lambdas are, it is difficult to predict how the variant will behave. “We need to be vigilant and look for variants of Lambda. Whether it surpasses Delta is something we have to wait for,” he said.

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