Predicting incident heart failure among patients with type 2
A total of 9,649 diabetic patients free of HF were used, with a median follow-up of 4 years and 299 incident hospitalization of HF events. The model identified several predictors for the 10-year HF incidence risk score “DM-CURE”: socio-Demographic (education, age at T2DM diagnosis), Metabolic (HbA1c, SBP, BMI, HDL), diabetes-related Complications (MI, revascularization, cardiovascular medications, neuropathy, hypertension duration, albuminuria, UACR, ESKD), and healthcare Utilization (all-cause hospitalization, ER visits) for Risk Evaluation. Among them, the strongest impact factors for future HF were age at T2DM diagnosis, healthcare utilization, and cardiovascular disease-related variables. The model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in the ACCORD data and a good performance in the validation data. The 10-year risk of incident HF increased in a graded fashion, from 1% in quintile 1 (score 14), 1–5% in quintile 2 (score 15–23), 5–10% in quintile 3 (score 24–27), 10–20% in quintile 4 (score 28–33), and 20% in quintile 5 (score >33).