Prediction models for covid-19 outcomes: BMJ Study
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5% of people in Britain predicted by a new tool to be at highest risk from Covid-19 accounted for three-quarters of deaths during the first wave of the pandemic, researchers reported in BMJ.

To develop the new application, called QCOVID, researchers from across Britain compiled data from six million patients, including age, height-weight ratio, ethnicity, and pre-existing conditions — such as high blood pressure and diabetes — known to increase the risk of serious outcomes after infection.

They then tested the approach on 2.2 million patients — most of whom did not have Covid-19 — to see how well it predicted hospitalisation and deaths during two periods, late January to the end of April, and May 1 to June 30.

More than three-quarters of those who died from the virus were in the top 5% of those predicted to be at maximum risk.

While the tool effectively profiled those facing the worst odds, it did not identify which factors caused fatal outcomes, the researchers cautioned

"If ways could be found to protect this five percent — such as regular testing of their closest contacts —- it could make a substantial difference to the public health burden of Covid-19", said Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, describing the study as "a very striking result."

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3731 & FirstPost
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