Prediction of the postoperative 90-day mortality after acute
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Researchers develop a model that helps predict 90-day mortality after acute colorectal cancer surgery. It was published in the International Journal of Colorectal Disease.

The model was developed in all patients undergoing acute colorectal cancer surgery in 2014–2016 and validated in a patient group operated in 2017 in Denmark. The outcome was 90-day mortality.

Tested predictor variables were age, sex, performance status, BMI, smoking, alcohol, education level, cohabitation status, tumor localization, and primary surgical procedure. Variables were selected according to the smallest Akaike information criterion. The model was shrunken by bootstrapping. Discrimination was evaluated with a receiver-operated characteristic curve, calibration with a calibration slope, and accuracy with a Brier score. A total of 1450 patients were included for the development of the model and 451 patients for validation.

--The 90-day mortality rate was 19% and 20%, respectively. Age, performance status, alcohol, smoking, and primary surgical procedure were the final variables included in the model.

--Discrimination, calibration, and accuracy were good in the developed model. In the temporal validation, discrimination and accuracy were good, and calibration was acceptable.

Conclusively, investigators developed a prediction model for 90-day mortality after acute colorectal cancer surgery that may be a promising tool for surgeons to identify patients at risk of postoperative mortality.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00384-021-03950-6
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