Why COVID-19 spread exponentially, & How to flatten the curv
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The "Flattening the Curve" graphic, which has gone viral on social media, visually explains the best currently available strategy to stop the COVID-19 spread.

If the number of cases was to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases soon. That is math, not prophecy. The spread can be slowed, public health professionals say, if people practice “social distancing” by avoiding public spaces and generally limiting their movement.

Still, without any measures to slow it down, covid-19 will continue to spread exponentially for months. To understand why it is instructive to simulate the spread of a fake disease #simulitis through a population. It spreads even more easily than covid-19: whenever a healthy person comes into contact with a sick person, the healthy person becomes sick, too.

Let’s see the four simulations described here & results in the image below :

Red Slope - No. of sick people
Blue Slope - No. of healthy people
Purple Slope- No. of Recovered people

#Free-for-all: Let’s see what happens when simulitis spreads in a town of 200 people. We started everyone in town at a random position, moving at a random angle, and made one person sick. We noticed the slope of red curve, rises rapidly as the disease spreads and then tapers off as people recover.

Our simulation town is small, so simulitis was able to spread quickly across the entire population. When it comes to the real covid-19, we would prefer to slow the spread of the virus before it infects a large portion of population.

#Attempted Quarantine: To slow simulitis, let’s try to create a forced quarantine, such as the one the Chinese government imposed on Hubei province, covid-19’s ground zero.

Whoops! As health experts would expect, it proved impossible to completely seal off the sick population from the healthy. Fortunately, there are other ways to slow an outbreak. Above all, health officials have encouraged people to avoid public gatherings, to stay home more often and to keep their distance from others. If people are less mobile and interact with each other less, the virus has fewer opportunities to spread.

#Moderate Social Distancing: Quarter of the population is allowed to move while the other three-quarter of populations adopt the strategy of “Social Distancing”.

#Extensive Distancing: We simulate even more social distancing, by letting just one of every eight people move.

The four simulations — a free-for-all, an attempted quarantine, moderate social distancing and extensive social distancing — were random. Even with different results, moderate social distancing will usually outperform the attempted quarantine, and extensive social distancing usually works best of all. Below is a comparison of your results.

Simulitis is not covid-19, and these simulations vastly oversimplify the complexity of real life. Covid-19 is spreading through our human networks — through our countries, our towns, our workplaces, our families. And a single person’s behavior can cause ripple effects that touch faraway people.

In one crucial respect, though, these simulations are nothing like reality: Unlike simulitis, covid-19 can kill. Though the fatality rate is not precisely known, it is clear that the elderly members of our community are most at risk of dying from covid-19.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
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